Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
Vice President Kamala Harris could become the nation’s first woman, Black woman and Asian American president.
Two other Black women — Prince George’s County, Md., Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Delaware Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, both Democrats — are running for Senate. If elected, they would join just three other Black women who have served in the chamber: Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, Harris and Laphonza Butler of California, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s term. Butler is not seeking a full term.
And North Dakota would be poised to send its first woman to the House, should Republican Julie Fedorchak, the state’s public service commissioner, win in November.
But those historic firsts mask some less encouraging trends for gender parity in Congress.
“After successive election cycles where multiple new candidate records were attained by women, candidacies in both chambers of Congress have dropped in election 2024,” said Chelsea Hill, director of data for the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
The drop was larger for Republican women than it was for Democratic women: The number of GOP women running for the House fell about 36 percent from 2022 to 2024. Among Democratic women, the drop was 6.8 percent.
In the Senate, where the pool of candidates is smaller, the number of Democratic women contenders dipped 9.4 percent and Republican women fell by 45 percent.
Hill noted that the overall number of candidates for Congress, both male and female, has dropped from 2022, a trend she attributed partly to the reduction in open seats.
But there are particular factors that discourage women, particularly women of color, from running, including the toxicity of politics. “We know that that abuse is gendered and racialized,” said Kelly Dittmar, the center’s director of research.
Such attacks are nothing new. After Sen. JD Vance accepted the Republican nomination for vice president, an old clip emerged of him painting Harris as a miserable, childless cat lady who doesn’t have “a direct stake” in the nation’s future.
Comments like that could undermine the GOP’s efforts to win with suburban women, said Debbie Walsh, the center’s director. “I think it will have an impact in terms of those swing voters who are women,” she said. Overall, women, who make up slightly more than half of the U.S. population, have a long way to go to reach parity in Congress, where they hold just 25 percent of seats in the Senate and 28.7 percent of House seats.
Starting gate
Biden out: After posting a letter to social media Sunday saying he would end his bid for another term, President Joe Biden quickly endorsed Harris, who almost as quickly united Democratic delegates behind her and started taking the fight to Republican nominee Donald Trump. Legal challenges are likely. But Democratic leaders were confident she could win and carry the House and Senate with her, even as candidates started to feel attacks tying them to Harris’ record. Biden delivered an address Wednesday casting the race ahead as a battle for democracy that was more important than his own ambition.
The new likely nominee: Ahead of the Democratic National Convention back in 2020, we looked at the legislative record of Harris, then still a senator from California. She voted with fellow Democrats 99 percent of the time, according to CQ’s party unity statistics. This week, Jessie Hellmann and Ariel Cohen on the health team looked at Harris’ advocacy as a senator for maternal health, and defense team reporters Caroline Coudriet, John M. Donnelly and Mark Satter ran down the global conflicts that Harris would inherit if elected and how her approach might differ from Biden’s or not.
“How far away was Oswald from Kennedy”: That’s what FBI Director Christopher Wray said was among the Google searches of the person who shot and wounded Trump in Butler, Pa. Our CQ Roll Call colleague Ryan Tarinelli has a full report from the House Judiciary Committee, where Wray was testifying.
Menendez accepts reality: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez plans to resign next month after he was convicted on federal corruption charges and other senators were weighing whether to expel him, Tarinelli reports. His decision comes after the Senate Ethics Committee announced it would begin an adjudicatory review of alleged violations of the chamber’s rules. Attention now turns to Gov. Phil Murphy, who has said he would make a “temporary appointment” to fill the rest of Menendez’s term, which runs through early January. Fun fact: Menendez’s last day will be Aug. 20, the second day of the Democratic convention to which he will remain an automatic delegate.
MAGA memories: It may not seem like it, but since this newsletter last arrived in your inbox, Trump accepted his party’s nomination at the GOP convention’s final night and kept fact-checkers busy. Our John T. Bennett also talked to delegates about whether running mate JD Vance, the senator from Ohio, is now the heir apparent to the movement Trump started.
ICYMI
Payne replacement: Democratic officials picked Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver to replace Rep. Donald M. Payne Jr. on the ballot for New Jersey’s 10th District in November. McIver last week won the primary to complete Payne’s unfinished term after he died in April.
Looking ahead: Politics editor Herb Jackson joined analysts from our sister companies FrontierView and Oxford Analytica for a webinar on the economic, global and policy implications of a Harris vs. Trump race.
Border vote: Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola, Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, Yadira Caraveo, Don Davis and Henry Cuellar on Thursday voted with Republicans on a resolution condemning “Border Czar Kamala Harris’ failure to secure the United States border.” All six face competitive races this fall, and Peltola, Golden and Pérez all represent districts that Trump won in 2020.
Ad watch: In the Maryland Senate race, Alsobrooks released her first ad of the general election, saying “everything” is at stake because the state will decide which party controls the Senate next year. Emily Busch, a Democrat running in Michigan’s 10th District, released an ad running on cable disclosing that she had an abortion.
#MISEN: It didn’t get quite as much attention as Biden’s decision to give up his presidential campaign, but businessman Sandy Pensler dropped out of Michigan’s Senate race over the weekend. He endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers, the leading Republican candidate.
Recount scheduled: The recount in Virginia’s 5th District Republican primary will take place on Aug. 1. Rep. Bob Good, who requested the recount, trails his challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, by 374 votes.
#Endorsed: The gun control group Brady PAC endorsed Alsobrooks, Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, Illinois Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley and these Democratic House candidates: Gil Cisneros, California’s 31st District; Derek Tran, California’s 45th; April McClain Delaney, Maryland’s 6th; Curtis Hertel, Michigan’s 7th; Tony Vargas, Nebraska’s 2nd; Herb Conaway, New Jersey’s 3rd; Rob Menendez, New Jersey’s 8th; Josh Riley, New York’s 19th; John Mannion, New York’s 22nd; Eugene Vindman, Virginia’s 7th; and Suhas Subramanyam, Virginia’s 10th.
Latino voters, abortion and the economy: A new survey of Latino voters by Global Strategy Group, a political firm historically tied to Democrats, found that a majority of Latino voters said abortion is “top of mind” for them, and 3 in 5 said it should be legal in some or all cases. On the economy, 61 percent expressed unease about their own financial situation. The poll of 700 Latino registered voters was conducted from June 20-25.
What we’re reading
On board: Labor groups have expressed concern about Sen. Mark Kelly, the Arizona Democrat whose name appears to be on the short list to be the new Democratic vice presidential candidate. But the senator is now making clear he is “very supportive” of organizing legislation that’s among the top priorities for unions, HuffPost reports.
Meanwhile, in Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz, a former House member (not to be confused with Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.), is on the reported short list of potential Harris running mates. Torey Van Oot at Axios writes that he is a potential contender for a Harris Cabinet even if he doesn’t get the VP nod.
Backed by Black women: Harris, an Alpha Kappa Alpha member, is tapping into the power of Black sororities. The 19th* reports on her address to the Zeta Phi Beta sorority’s Grand Boulé in Indianapolis this week.
Leaning in: Harris hasn’t always been comfortable with her experience as a former prosecutor and California’s attorney general. When she ran for president in 2020, she struggled to articulate her law enforcement credentials to the Democratic Party’s skeptical progressive base. But now, running against a convicted felon, Harris is ready to embrace her prosecutorial experience, writes The Atlantic.
The count: $154 million
That’s how much donors gave through actblue.com, a payment-processing platform that caters to Democratic candidates and committees, on the day of Biden’s announcement and the following day, ActBlue announced. Not all committees soliciting donations are created equal, however, as Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin reminded us in a series of posts about committees that take money in and then spend almost all of it raising more money, leaving little to go to the candidates and causes that people may have thought they were supporting.
Nathan’s notes
After Biden said he’s not running, many Republicans said that wasn’t good enough and called on him to resign. Nathan looks at why they might not really want that.
Key race: #TN05
Candidates: Rep. Andy Ogles, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, faces a challenge from Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council. The winner will face Maryam Abolfazli, a Democrat who is unopposed in the Aug. 1 primary.
Why it matters: Ogles drew a primary challenge from Johnston, who is arguing he’s been effective in his first term in office. The winner will be the favorite to win the seat in November, after redistricting ahead of the 2022 elections broke up a Democratic-leaning seat in Nashville into three different districts.
Cash dash: Johnston outraised Ogles, but had less cash on hand for the final weeks of the campaign, as of July 12. Johnston raised $785,000 and had $264,000 on hand, while Ogles raised $722,000 and had $306,000 on hand. Ogles’ allies, including House Freedom Action and Americans for Prosperity Action, have spent $278,000 supporting him and opposing Johnston. The group Conservatives with Character Inc. spent $384,000 supporting Johnston.
Backers: Trump backed Ogles, which is the most significant endorsement in a Republican primary. He’s also backed by several conservatives in Congress, including Sens. Bill Hagerty, Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. Johnston has touted an endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police’s Middle Tennessee Lodges.
What they’re saying: There aren’t many policy differences between the two Republicans. Johnston’s campaign has labeled her a “conservative outsider” and argued that Ogles hasn’t been a leader in Congress. Ogles has touted Trump’s endorsement, including in an ad narrated by the former president, and has targeted Democrats, notably introducing articles of impeachment against Harris earlier this week. Earlier this year, Ogles amended a campaign finance report that originally said he owed his 2022 campaign $320,000 and said he loaned the campaign only $20,000. Local news reports have also questioned aspects of Ogles’ biography since he was elected.
Terrain: The Nashville-area district would have supported Trump by 12 percentage points in 2020. Ogles won his 2022 race by 13.5 percentage points. Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Republican.
Wild card: If Ogles were to lose his primary, he would be the third member of Congress defeated in a primary this year, although a fourth, Good in Virginia’s 5th District, trails his race that’s set for a recount next week, and McGuire, the state senator who has declared victory, was on the campaign trail with vice presidential nominee Vance this week.
Coming up
Congressional primaries start back up again next week, with contests in Arizona on Tuesday and Tennessee on Thursday, with two open House seats and an open Senate seat in the Grand Canyon State.
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
Post a Comment