Just days after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, Vice President Kamala Harris has raised stacks of campaign money, she’s mostly united and energized the Democratic Party, and she’s received the backing of a majority of pledged Democratic convention delegates.
That’s the good news for Harris and Democrats.
But her next challenge may be a much steeper one: winning over the swing and independent voters who have been cool to her previously — but who will be crucial to defeating Republican Donald Trump in November.
Merged polling from the NBC News poll — combining responses from surveys conducted in January, April and July before Biden’s exit — shows Harris not only underwater with these swing voters in terms of her popularity, but also with lower net scores than Biden has. There are more voters who don’t yet register a strong opinion of her, so those numbers could change as the public side of her campaign gets going in earnest. But it’s a potentially vulnerable starting position, though Trump is in similar territory.
Among independent voters, 28% view Biden positively versus 53% who see him negatively (for a net rating of -25), according to this polling. Harris’ standing among these same voters: 20% positive, 49% negative (-29).
Among self-identified moderates, Biden enjoys a 43% positive, 44% negative score (-1), while Harris is at 33% positive, 43% negative (-10).
And among persuadable voters — respondents who don’t vote reliably for either Democrats or Republicans — Biden’s at 26% positive, 53% negative (-27), compared with Harris at 19% positive, 51% negative (-32).
The other side of the equation, of course, is that Trump isn’t popular with these swing groups, either. In fact, some of his net ratings are worse than Harris’, according to this merged polling.
Among independents, Trump is 25% positive, 57% negative (-32). Among moderates, he’s 26% positive, 62% (-36). And among persuadable voters, he’s 26% positive, 56% negative (-30).
That said, recent national polls — such as ABC News/Ipsos and Quinnipiac — have shown Trump’s overall favorability rating improving after surviving the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, less than two weeks ago.
And the shifting ratings are an important reminder for Harris: These numbers can change, especially after she’s reintroduced to the American electorate.
But she’s got work to do.
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